Critical Thinking and National Security
"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear..."
From Bene Gesserit prayer, The Litany Against Fear, in the novel, Dune.
When we are in a pleasant alpha-state carefully mulling over all the various possible occurrences that might, well might occur, we are usually capable of making fairly reasonable threat assessments.
If it is threatening to rain, for example, we might choose to take an umbrella. We probably would leave the titanium umbrella safely stored in the umbrella stand accurately assessing that the likelihood of being struck by a meteor during our walk braving the elements was minimal. Not zero. But close enough to take our trusty old fabric one to keep us nice and dry.
When we put random events that generate a fear response - like terrorism - into the mix, though, remarkable things begin to happen. We begin to over estimate the likelihood of "big" disasters (like 9-11) and falsely minimize the likelihood of small ones (like getting hit by a bakery truck).
Zack Phillips at GovernmentExecutive.com* has written a very clear and cogent piece about this entitled Security Theater. Phillips references John Mueller, author of Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them (Free Press, 2006):
For example, international terrorism annually causes the same number of deaths as drowning in bathtubs or bee stings. It would take a repeat of Sept. 11 every month of the year to make flying as dangerous as driving. Over a lifetime, the chance of being killed by a terrorist is about the same as being struck by a meteor.
Phillips also makes the case that the Department of Homeland Security is slowly getting up to speed in terms of measuring risk, rather than just responding to possible threats.
That's reassuring. The biggest risk we have as citizens is to create a culture of fear that leads to the further reduction of our civil liberties while not really making any of us any safer.
Fear is the mind-killer.
* (h/t Bruce Schneier)