tfdl

Last night was a lesson in how fragile routine systems can be.
Like any complex system that runs on a schedule, mass transit systems are designed with limited capabilities for self-organizing. Drivers are expected to drive their routes. The schedules are designed with some of the unpredictability of shifting traffic patterns and so forth in mind. When stressed to the edges of those tolerances, however, it is easy to see just how fragile these systems are. And weather can be a major stressor.

Public transportation systems like the commercial airline industry - with its tight schedules and quick turnaround times (especially for discount airlines like JetBlue – is case in point. And metropolitan transit systems are another.

So last night I was standing at one of my usual bus stops, and noticed that there was an unusually larger number of people waiting for the bus. A gentleman there said they had been waiting for almost 45 minutes (buses on this route usually arrive every 10 minutes or so). Obviously, there was some serious problem upstream. The weather was bitter cold, and all the slush from the afternoon traffic had now turned into jagged icy ruts that were difficult to negotiate. It was not a stetch to imagine that there may have been an accident or some such calamity on the southbound route.

Here’s the thing, though. At least six or seven northbound buses kept right on going to the end of the line. That meant that there was no way to adapt to a critical situation. No way for drivers to cut their routes short – maybe offload passengers to another northbound bus, and turn around to pick up the passengers stranded at the southbound stops.

So, I was faced with one of those remarkably difficult decision trees. Do I wait for a bus, or begin walking the mile or so home? Do I risk being in the middle of the block when a bus goes by making the trudge home seem longer? Do I stand in the cold with the other penguins, or do I wander off like a polar bear? I chose the polar bear route.

Turned out to be a wise choice. No bus passed me during the half-hour journey across the frozen tundra of Germantown. Yet, thanks to a brief shopping spree last month to REI, I was reasonably warm (except of the acupuncture needles that seemed to be sticking into my face.

On that great trek I saw at least 3 more buses head up the northern trail. While at each corner I encountered more penguins.

At some point in critical situations like this one where mothers with small children and elderly folks were left shivering in the cold, I believe it is important to empower those on the front lines to take the initiative and break out of their routines. Or at least create a communication system that is less fragile than the transport one, so that supervisors can direct drivers to change their routes and allow humans to do what they often do quite well – adapt.

And speaking of elderly folks…
Also during the trek I saw several pedestrians yielding their right of way to motorists, even though they were at a cross walk and had a green light. I even saw one especially egregious case where a man in an SUV actually made a right hand turn right in from to an elderly woman trying to negotiate her way across the icy street. She was forced to not only stop, but also step back so that this picture of entitlement could complete his turn. I tried to imagine that he was a pediatric neurosurgeon - black bag sitting on the seat next to him - on route to a hospital to save a sick child. Only instead I saw what looked like a spoiled middle-class white guy, and all I could imagine was an extra-large pepperoni pizza with extra-cheese on the seat getting colder by the minute. But that's another story.